For the anti-counterfeiting printing and security paper industry, 2026 is a year of "harder rules, clearer boundaries, and a bigger market." From the official implementation of two national standards at the start of the year, to the expansion of mandatory traceability across key industries, to the market size firmly crossing the ¥200 billion threshold — the living space for legitimate anti-counterfeiting enterprises is being institutionally expanded, while workshop-style producers surviving on low-quality holographic stickers continue to be pushed out the door.

I. Two National Standards Take Effect: Industry Terminology and Management Boundaries Redefined​

On June 30, 2025, the State Administration for Market Regulation (National Standardization管理委员会) approved and issued GB/T 19425-2025 General Specifications for Anti-Counterfeiting Technology Products and GB/T 17002-2025 Code of Practice for the Production of Anti-Counterfeiting Technology Products. These standards will be officially implemented on January 1, 2026, replacing the 2003 and 1997 versions respectively.

The most noteworthy changes in the new standards for manufacturing enterprises are threefold:

  • Deleted​ the outdated definitions of "printing," "special printing," and "anti-counterfeiting printing products," and added​ definitions for two new entity types: "manufacturing-type anti-counterfeiting enterprises" and "digital information service-type anti-counterfeiting enterprises；

  • Upgraded production management from basic requirements like "workshop hygiene + ledgers" to a full-chain system​ covering organizational structure, key personnel, facility environment, process management, product security/confidentiality, and systemic safeguards.；

  • Explicitly listed​ data security management requirements for digital information service enterprises, formally bringing "one-item-one-code platform operators" into the regulatory scope of national standards.

For security paper mills, the direct impact is this: going forward, order acceptance requires not only retaining samples for inspection, but also clearly separating two distinct scopes of responsibility in the contract — "physical anti-counterfeiting substrate supply" and "digital traceability services." The old practice of covering the entire chain with a single vague "anti-counterfeiting label" contract is no longer viable.

II. Mandatory Traceability Expands Beyond Food, Pharma, and Medical Devices; "One-Item-One-Code" Becomes the Compliance Standard

As the opening year of the "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026–2030), 2026 marks the full normalization of traceability compliance. The State Administration for Market Regulation aims to establish a certified full-lifecycle traceability system by the end of 2026. The National Market Supervision Administration's [2024] No. 6 Directive​ continues to take effect, promoting "source coding + scan-and-verify" for over ten industrial product categories — including electric bicycles, home appliances, mobile power banks, and children’s products. In the food sector, aligned with GB/T 45547-2025, bulk food products must achieve 100% full-chain traceability by 2027.

The China Anti-Counterfeiting Industry Association's 2026 Annual Outstanding Cases, released in May, cover eight major sectors — liquor, personal care, seed, gold, medical aesthetics, lubricants, rubber, and auto parts. The common thread across all cases is a "physical carrier + digital identity" dual-track approach: Fenjiu uses 3D cloud film + RFID chips; Wuliangye uses anti-copy film coating; Jiannanchun uses circular multi-color light-angle color-shifting; COFCO Mingzhuanghui uses optically variable ink + color-changing QR codes; and the gold sector uses invisible nano-encoded "digital passports.

This means that the clients of security paper mills and printing plants are no longer just asking, "Does the paper look authentic? Does the sticker hold firm?" Instead, they are pressing further: "After this roll of paper leaves the factory, can it be bound to the brand's backend code system? Can it connect to the Industrial Internet Identifier Resolution Node?

III. Market Size & Structure: Steady Total Growth, High - end Concentration​

Multiple institutions estimate that in 2024, the market size of China's anti - counterfeiting printing industry was approximately 211.8 billion yuan. In 2025, the overall anti - counterfeiting industry scale is expected to reach 285.2 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) remaining around 10%. By 2028, it is likely to exceed 400 billion yuan. Among them, the global market for holographic anti - counterfeiting paper will be 4.72 billion US dollars in 2025, with China accounting for 1.76 billion US dollars and a growth rate of 11.4%. The pharmaceutical anti - counterfeiting segment has the highest growth rate among all applications, at 16.2%.

Structurally, the "small and scattered" pattern still exists (there are over 5,000 anti - counterfeiting production enterprises nationwide). However, the CR5 (concentration ratio of the top 5 enterprises) in the high - end anti - counterfeiting market continues to rise. Leading enterprises have reduced the cost of AI model training to less than 40% of the original level, and the number of patent applications is increasing by 120% year - on - year. Environmental protection factors are also reshaping the market: the proportion of degradable anti - counterfeiting labels has exceeded 40%. "Seed paper", low - energy - consumption soft printing, and water - based glossy printing have evolved from bonus points in bidding to mandatory thresholds.

In Conclusion：

After 2026, the competitiveness formula for anti-counterfeiting enterprises has become: "National standard compliance qualification × Physical anti-counterfeiting process × Digital traceability access capability × Vertical industry case studies."

Factories that only understand papermaking and printing need to urgently catch up on data compliance. Platforms that only do code systems need to go back and master the basics — substrate security threads, fluorescent fibers, watermark roller pressing. Both legs are required; missing either one means losing the next round of brand-client bids.